How to Avoid Overestimating the Odds of Winning the Lottery

The idea of making decisions and determining fates by casting lots has a long history, including several instances in the Bible. It was also used by Roman emperors to distribute property and slaves, and the lottery first came to America with British colonists who sponsored a game in Virginia in 1612, raising money for the new country. Since then, state lotteries have proliferated throughout the United States.

Once established, lotteries typically follow a predictable pattern: state governments legislate a monopoly for themselves; establish a state agency or public corporation to run the games; start with a modest number of relatively simple games; and then, due to constant pressure for additional revenue, progressively expand the games, often adding new games at a breakneck pace. The result has been that while revenues initially increase dramatically, they eventually begin to level off and even decline. The resulting “boredom factor” requires lottery officials to constantly introduce new games to maintain or increase revenues.

Leaf Van Boven, a CU Boulder psychology professor and expert on decision making and counterfactual thoughts, has done extensive research on why people play the lottery. He says that people have a tendency to overestimate the odds of winning. They also tend to overweight small probabilities, treating them as though they are much greater than they actually are.

A good way to avoid these biases is to form a lottery pool with friends. Choose a dependable person to be the manager and make sure that everyone is on the same page about how the money will be split, what tickets are purchased, and how the drawings will be monitored. You should also write a contract that clearly sets out the terms and rules of the pool.